Estimating urban water demand under conditions of rapid growth: the case of Shanghai

Abstract

Many of the world’s major cities are expected to face significant water shortages in coming decades, largely due to increased demand arising from economic and population growth. In this paper, we estimate the effects of economic and population growth on future public water needs in Shanghai, one of the world’s megacities. Despite significant investment in a new reservoir and associated supply systems, and its location at the estuary of one the world’s major rivers (the Yangtze), it is widely believed that Shanghai is vulnerable to water shortages, though the causes of this have hitherto not been systematically examined. Our method of estimating future water needs involves extrapolation from ..