Evolution of mean, variance and extremes in 21st century temperatures

Abstract

Warming of the climate system can result in very large corresponding changes in the occurrence of climate extremes. Temperature extremes may occur due to a shift in the whole distribution, where there is an increase in the entire temperature probability distribution, or to changes in the shape of the distribution, such as an increase in variability causing a widening of the distribution. Understanding the precise characteristics of changes in temperature distributions in response to background warming is an important aspect of fully understanding changes in heat extremes and their associated impacts on human and ecosystem health. This study investigates projected 21st century changes in the ..