Journal article
Tracking the distribution and impacts of diseases with biological records and distribution modelling
BV Purse, N Golding
Biological Journal of the Linnean Society | OXFORD UNIV PRESS | Published : 2015
DOI: 10.1111/bij.12567
Abstract
Species distribution modelling is widely used in epidemiology for mapping spatial patterns and the risk of introduction of diseases and vectors and also for predicting how exposure may alter given future environmental change, motivated by the high societal impact and the multiple environmental drivers of disease outbreaks. Although pathogens and vectors have historically been sparsely recorded, monitoring systems and media sources are generating novel, online data sources on occurrence. Moreover, increasing ecological realism is being incorporated into distribution modelling techniques, focussing on dispersal, biotic interactions and evolutionary constraints that shape species distributions ..
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Awarded by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
BVP was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Scottish Government and the Department for International Development under grant number BB/H009167/1, with additional support provided by the Natural Environment Research Council. NG was funded by grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1053338 & OPP1093011). We thank Eva De Clercq, Marius Gilbert, Nienke Hartemink, David Rogers, Sophie Vanwambeke and William Wint for sharing their experiences of translating risk maps into policy, as well as Colin Harrower for preparing the information from the Biological Records Centre for use in Table 1 and assistance with figures.