Journal article

Data Assimilation using an Ensemble of Models: A hierarchical approach

Peter Rayner

Copernicus GmbH

Abstract

Abstract. One characteristic of biogeochemical models is uncertainty about their formulation. Data assimilation should take this uncertainty into account. A common approach is to use an ensemble of models. We must assign probabilities not only to the parameters of the models but the models themselves. The method of hierarchical modelling allows us to calculate these probabilities. This paper describes the approach, develops the algebra for the most common case then applies it to the TRANSCOM intercomparison. We see that the discrimination among models is unrealistically strong, due to optimistic assumptions inherent in the underlying inversion. The weighted ensemble means and variances from ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

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