Journal article

Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

CT Webb, M Ferrari, T Lindström, T Carpenter, S Dürr, G Garner, C Jewell, M Stevenson, MP Ward, M Werkman, J Backer, M Tildesley

Preventive Veterinary Medicine | ELSEVIER | Published : 2017

Abstract

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured deci..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by National Institute of General Medical Sciences


Funding Acknowledgements

Funding provided by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Program, Science and Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health through interagency agreement #HSHQDC-09-X-00135. We especially thank the AusSpread, CVI, Exodis FMD, InterSpread Plus, NAADSM and Warwick modelling teams for providing model outputs for our analyses and Kelly A. Patyk for her comments on the manuscript. MF and MT are funded by a grant from the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease program of the NSF/NIH (award number 1 RO1 GM10524701).