Journal article
Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management
CT Webb, M Ferrari, T Lindström, T Carpenter, S Dürr, G Garner, C Jewell, M Stevenson, MP Ward, M Werkman, J Backer, M Tildesley
Preventive Veterinary Medicine | ELSEVIER | Published : 2017
Abstract
Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured deci..
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Awarded by National Institute of General Medical Sciences
Funding Acknowledgements
Funding provided by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Program, Science and Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health through interagency agreement #HSHQDC-09-X-00135. We especially thank the AusSpread, CVI, Exodis FMD, InterSpread Plus, NAADSM and Warwick modelling teams for providing model outputs for our analyses and Kelly A. Patyk for her comments on the manuscript. MF and MT are funded by a grant from the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease program of the NSF/NIH (award number 1 RO1 GM10524701).