Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

Andrew J Black; Nicholas Geard; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon; Joshua V Ross

Journal article

Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

Andrew J Black, Nicholas Geard, James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross

EPIDEMICS | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV | Published : 2017

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.004

Abstract

Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that response measures are proportionate to the scale of the threat. Recently, frameworks based on transmissibility and severity have been proposed for initial characterization of pandemic impact. Data requirements to inform this assessment may be provided by "First Few Hundred" (FF100) studies, which involve surveillance-possibly in person, or via telephone-of household members of confirmed cases. This process of enhanced case finding enables detection of cases across the full spectrum of clinical severity, including the date of symptom onset. Such surveillance is continue..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

James McCaw Author Mathematics and Statistics

Nic Geard Author Computing and Information Systems

Jodie McVernon Author Infectious Diseases

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Grants

Awarded by ARC DECRA

Awarded by ARC Future Fellowship

Awarded by Australian Government NHMRC Career Development Award

Funding Acknowledgements

A.J.B. was supported by an ARC DECRA (DE160100690). J.V.R. was supported by an ARC Future Fellowship (FT130100254). A.J.B. and J.V.R. were also supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (CoE ACEMS). N.G. was supported by an ARC DECRA (DE130100660). J.M.M. was supported by an ARC Future Fellowship (FT110100250). J.M. was supported by a Australian Government NHMRC Career Development Award (CDF1061321). A.J.B., N.G., J.M., J.M.M. and J.V.R. were supported by the Australian Government NHMRC Centre for Research Excellencein Policy Relevant Infectious diseases Simulation and Mathematical Modelling (CRE PRISM2).