Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

Abstract

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (â 1/420-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events - and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events - around a group of small island nation..