Journal article
Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific
Savin S Chand, Kevin J Tory, Hua Ye, Kevin JE Walsh
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3181
Abstract
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (â 1/420-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events - and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events - around a group of small island nation..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This project is supported through funding from the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme (NESP). We thank S. Power, A. Dowdy, M. Wheeler and E. Ebert from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for their valuable feedback. S.S.C. also thanks P. Vamplew and colleagues at Federation University Australia for their comments on this work.