Journal article

Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals

Alejandra Moran-Ordonez, Natalie J Briscoe, Brendan A Wintle

Ecography: pattern and diversity in ecology | Wiley | Published : 2018


Conservation of species under climate change relies on accurate predictions of species ranges under current and future climate conditions. To date, modelling studies have focused primarily on how changes in long‐term averaged climate conditions are likely to influence species distributions with much less attention paid to the potential effect of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves which are expected to increase in frequency over coming decades. In this study we explore the benefits of tailoring predictor variables to the specific physiological constraints of species, or groups of species. We show how utilizing spatial predictors of extreme temperature and water availability (heat‐w..

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Awarded by FORESTCAST project


Funding Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED) and the National Environment Research Program Decisions Hub (NERP ED). BW is supported by ARC Future Fellowship. AMO was also supported by the FORESTCAST (CGL2014-59742-C2-2-R) and ERA-NET FORESTERRA INFORMED (29183) projects and the CERCA Programme (Generalitat de Catalunya). NJB was also supported by the National Environment Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub.