Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessments facilitate the decisions of risk managers. In the EU, risk assessment in food and feed safety is the responsibility of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Quantitative risk models should be informed by systematically reviewed scientific evidence, however, in practice empirical evidence is often limited: in such cases it is necessary to turn to expert judgement. Psychological research has shown that unaided expert judgement of the quantities required for risk modelling ‐ and particularly the uncertainty associated with such judgements ‐ is often biased, thus limiting its value. Accordingly methods have been developed for eliciting knowledge from experts in..