Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates

Abstract

Science-based models often involve substantial uncertainty that must be quantified in a defendable way. Shortage of empirical data inevitably requires input from expert judgment. How this uncertainty is best elicited can be critical to a decision process, as differences in efficacy and robustness of the elicitation methods can be substantial. When performed rigorously, expert elicitation and pooling of experts' opinions can be powerful means for obtaining rational estimates of uncertainty. Causes of uncertainty may be interrelated and may introduce dependencies. Ignoring these dependencies may lead to large errors. Dependence modelling is an active research topic, and methods for dependence ..