Journal article
A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9days
JC Bennett, DE Robertson, DL Shrestha, QJ Wang, D Enever, P Hapuarachchi, NK Tuteja
Journal of Hydrology | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV | Published : 2014
Abstract
This study describes a System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) designed to forecast streamflows to lead times of 9. days. SCHEF is intended to support optimal management of water resources for consumptive and environmental purposes and ultimately to support the management of impending floods. Deterministic rainfall forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are post-processed using a Bayesian joint probability model to correct biases and quantify uncertainty. Realistic temporal and spatial characteristics are instilled in the rainfall forecast ensemble with the Schaake shuffle. The ensemble rainfall forecasts are then used as inputs to the GR..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This research has been supported by the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship. We thank Jeff Perkins, Brett Anderson and Tom Pagano (all Bureau of Meteorology) for valuable discussions on methods. Thanks to Jin Teng (CSIRO) for suggestions on an earlier draft, and to two anonymous reviewers whose constructive and thorough reviews have improved the paper.