Journal article
Toward accurate and reliable forecasts of australian seasonal rainfall by calibrating and merging multiple coupled GCMS
A Schepen, QJ Wang
Monthly Weather Review | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2013
Abstract
The majority of international climate modeling centers now produce seasonal rainfall forecasts from coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Seasonal rainfall forecasting is highly challenging, and GCM forecast accuracy is still poor for many regions and seasons. Additionally, forecast uncertainty tends to be underestimated meaning that forecast probabilities are statistically unreliable. A common strategy employed to improve the overall accuracy and reliability of GCM forecasts is to merge forecasts from multiple models into a multimodel ensemble (MME). The most widely used technique is to simply pool all of the forecast ensemble members from multiple GCMs into what is known as a superens..
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Awarded by EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES
Funding Acknowledgements
The ENSEMBLES data used in this work were funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged. We acknowledge the WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) for establishing the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP; see Kirtman and Pirani 2009) and the Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA) for providing the model output (http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/). We also thank the data providers for making the model output available through CHFP. We appreciate the constructive and thoughtful comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers that helped improve this manuscript.