The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1-3 months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia
JC Bennett, QJ Wang, P Pokhrel, DE Robertson
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2014
Skilful forecasts of high streamflows a month or more in advance are likely to be of considerable benefit to emergency services and the broader community. This is particularly true for mesoscale catchments (< 2000 km2) with little or no seasonal snowmelt, where real-time warning systems are only able to give short notice of impending floods. In this study, we generate forecasts of high streamflows for the coming 1-month and coming 3-month periods using large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate indices and catchment wetness as predictors. Forecasts are generated with a combination of Bayesian joint probability modelling and Bayesian model averaging. High streamflows are defined as maximum single-d..View full abstract
This research has been supported by the Water Information Research and Development Alliance between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship. Thanks to Yong Song (CSIRO Land and Water), Christopher J. White (Bureau of Meteorology) and Senlin Zhou (Bureau of Meteorology) for their comments on earlier drafts. Thanks to Ben Livneh and two anonymous reviewers for comments and suggestions that have improved this paper. Thanks to Bruno Merz for coordinating reviews and handling the manuscript.