Conference Proceedings

Selecting predictors for seasonal streamflow predictions using a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modelling approach

DE Robertson, QJ Wang, RS Anderssen (ed.), RD Braddock (ed.), LTH Newham (ed.)

18TH WORLD IMACS CONGRESS AND MODSIM09 INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON MODELLING AND SIMULATION | MODELLING & SIMULATION SOC AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND INC | Published : 2009

Abstract

Forecasts of future seasonal streamflows are valuable to a range of water managers and users, including irrigators, urban and rural water supply authorities, environmental managers and hydroelectricity generators. Such forecasts can inform planning and management decisions to maximize returns on investments and available water resources, and to ensure security of water supplies. Historically, routine forecasts of seasonal streamflows have not been available in Australia. There are two main sources of predictability in Australian streamflows. Strong serial correlations in streamflows arise due to soil and groundwater storages extending the time between the incidence of rainfall and any result..

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University of Melbourne Researchers