Journal article
Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia
M Gilbert, N Golding, H Zhou, GRW Wint, TP Robinson, AJ Tatem, S Lai, S Zhou, H Jiang, D Guo, Z Huang, JP Messina, X Xiao, C Linard, TP Van Boeckel, V Martin, S Bhatt, PW Gething, JJ Farrar, SI Hay Show all
Nature Communications | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2014
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5116
Abstract
Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the s..
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Awarded by Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers
Funding Acknowledgements
M.G. and C.L. are funded by the 'Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique'. N.G. is funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1053338). T.P.R. is funded by the CGIAR Research Programmes on the Humidtropics, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH). S.I.H. is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (#095066) and receives support from the Li Ka Shing Foundation. S.I.H. and A.J.T. also acknowledge funding support from the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center (FIC), National Institutes of Health (NIH). A.J.T. is supported by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#1032350). P.W.G. is a Medical Research Council (UK) Career Development Fellow (#K00669X) and receives support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1068048) that also supports S.B. T.P.V.B. is supported by the Fulbright Belgium program, and the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security contract HSHQDC-12-C-00058. Part of the work was funded through the US NIH FIC grants (3R01TW007869-03 and 1R56TW009502-01), NIH NIAID grant (1R01AI101028-01A1) and the USAID-funded Emerging Pandemic Threat (EPT+) programme. H.Y. acknowledges the support of the US NIH (Comprehensive International Program for Research on AIDS grant U19 AI51915), the China-U.S. Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases and grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (2012 ZX10004-201). We wish to thank Neil Alexander for help with some of the geo-processing.