Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents

Abstract

The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants’ tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, re..