Identifying effective water-management strategies in variable climates using population dynamics models

Abstract

Water-resource management should maintain ecological condition, including population viabilities of aquatic taxa. Many arid and semi-arid regions have experienced elevated water regulation and face drying and warming climates. We combined stochastic, population dynamics models for four fish species with differing life histories with simulated regulated and unregulated flow regimes to assess the relative robustness of fish population persistence to different scenarios of climate change and water management. Water regulation had a larger effect than differences in climate, negatively affecting one species through increased summer flows, and stabilizing population trajectories for two species t..