Random point sampling to detect gain and loss in tree canopy cover in response to urban densification

Abstract

Urban tree canopy cover (UTC) is a simple, and common, measure of urban forest resource. Urban infill development is likely to lead to losses in UTC under private tenure, at a time when local governments are setting ambitious targets to increase UTC overall. Simple, statistically rigorous methods are required to benchmark and track change in UTC, whilst identifying which land-use types or tenures experience change. We estimated UTC in six Melbourne suburbs in 2010 and 2015 by randomly sampling 2000 points across public land, public streetscapes and private land. We were able to detect a net change in UTC of <2% over five years to a 95% level of confidence. A significant net decrease in UTC (..