Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia.
Karina Razali, Hla Hla Thein, Jane Bell, Mark Cooper-Stanbury, Kate Dolan, Greg Dore, Jacob George, John Kaldor, Maria Karvelas, Jiong Li, Lisa Maher, Sharyn McGregor, Margaret Hellard, Fiona Poeder, Julianne Quaine, Kim Stewart, Helen Tyrrell, Martin Weltman, Owen Westcott, Alex Wodak Show all
Drug Alcohol Depend | Published : 2007
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Australia is predominantly transmitted through injecting drug use. A reduction in the heroin supply in Australia in late 2000 and early 2001 may have impacted the number of injecting drug users (IDUs) and consequently the number of new hepatitis C infections in Australia. This paper updates estimates of HCV incidence and prevalence between 1960 and 2005. METHODS: Simple mathematical models were used to estimate HCV incidence among IDUs, migrants to Australia from high HCV-prevalence countries, and other HCV exposure groups. Recent trends in numbers of IDUs were based on indicators of injecting drug use. A natural history of HCV model was appli..View full abstract