Journal article
Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia
K Razali, HH Thein, J Bell, M Cooper-Stanbury, K Dolan, G Dore, J George, J Kaldor, M Karvelas, J Li, L Maher, S McGregor, M Hellard, F Poeder, J Quaine, K Stewart, H Tyrrell, M Weltman, O Westcott, A Wodak Show all
Drug and Alcohol Dependence | Published : 2007
Abstract
Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Australia is predominantly transmitted through injecting drug use. A reduction in the heroin supply in Australia in late 2000 and early 2001 may have impacted the number of injecting drug users (IDUs) and consequently the number of new hepatitis C infections in Australia. This paper updates estimates of HCV incidence and prevalence between 1960 and 2005. Methods: Simple mathematical models were used to estimate HCV incidence among IDUs, migrants to Australia from high HCV-prevalence countries, and other HCV exposure groups. Recent trends in numbers of IDUs were based on indicators of injecting drug use. A natural history of HCV model was appli..
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