Spectral verification of a mesoscale ensemble

Abstract

An adaptive spectral method is used to verify wind speed forecasts and simulations from members of the Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System (MSEPS), set up for the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in the Danish North Sea. The 75 members of the MSEPS are run on the same model grid with a resolution of 5km. The members differ in their numerical formulation, mainly in the fast reacting atmospheric processes and in their initial conditions. Temporal scales of 24 minutes to 10 hours are verified separately by using the Hilbert-Huang transform as a filter to extract envelopes of variance over a specific range of frequencies. This means that variability is being verified, but not phase, which may be..