Review & Forecast: The US-China ASW Calculus in the South China Sea

Abstract

The South China Sea will continue to be the locus of a heightened strategic technological contest between China and their anti-submarine warfare (ASW) opponents, with potentially existential stakes. the key transformational issue is China's plan to deploy intercontinental nuclear missile-capable submarines to provide China with a survivable sea-based second-strike nuclear-deterrent capability. The fundamental requirement for that capability, apart from questions of missile range, crew training and naval submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and nuclear submarine doctrinal development is that the submarines are able to reach the deeps of the western Pacific undetected by U.S. and Japan..