Journal article

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Joeri Rogelj, Oliver Fricko, Malte Meinshausen, Volker Krey, Johanna JJ Zilliacus, Keywan Riahi



The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 rangi..

View full abstract


Awarded by European Union

Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)

Funding Acknowledgements

J.R., O.F., V.K., J.J.J.Z. and K.R. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 642147 (CD-LINKS). M.M. is supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship (grant number FT130100809).