Optimally capturing latency dynamics in models of tuberculosis transmission
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Nick Scott, Michael T Meehan, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde
EPIDEMICS | ELSEVIER | Published : 2017
Although different structures are used in modern tuberculosis (TB) models to simulate TB latency, it remains unclear whether they are all capable of reproducing the particular activation dynamics empirically observed. We aimed to determine which of these structures replicate the dynamics of progression accurately. We reviewed 88 TB-modelling articles and classified them according to the latency structure employed. We then fitted these different models to the activation dynamics observed from 1352 infected contacts diagnosed in Victoria (Australia) and Amsterdam (Netherlands) to obtain parameter estimates. Six different model structures were identified, of which only those incorporating two l..View full abstract
RR was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.