Journal article

Comparability of Different Methods for Estimating Influenza Infection Rates Over a Single Epidemic Wave

Vernon J Lee, Mark I Chen, Jonathan Yap, Jocelyn Ong, Wei-Yen Lim, Raymond TP Lin, Ian Barr, Jimmy BS Ong, Tze Minn Mak, Lee Gan Goh, Yee Sin Leo, Paul M Kelly, Alex R Cook



Estimation of influenza infection rates is important for determination of the extent of epidemic spread and for calculation of severity indicators. The authors compared estimated infection rates from paired and cross-sectional serologic surveys, rates of influenza like illness (ILI) obtained from sentinel general practitioners (GPs), and ILI samples that tested positive for influenza using data from similar periods collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Singapore. The authors performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of estimates to input parameter uncertainties, and they determined sample sizes required for differing levels of precision. Estimates from paired seroconversio..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by National Medical Research Council of Singapore

Funding Acknowledgements

This project was funded by the National Medical Research Council of Singapore (grants NMRC/H1N1O/002/2009 and NMRC/H1N1R/005/2009).The authors thank the National University of Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Health for providing the data for this study; the Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza (which is supported by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing) for laboratory and technical assistance; and Teo Guo Ci for useful comments on the statistical approach.Conflict of interest: V. J. L. has received unrelated research grants from GlaxoSmithKline. A. R. C. has received research funding from the National University of Singapore. No other conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise, are present.