Journal article

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

Eric PM Grist, Jennifer A Flegg, Georgina Humphreys, Ignacio Suay Mas, Tim JC Anderson, Elizabeth A Ashley, Nicholas PJ Day, Mehul Dhorda, Arjen M Dondorp, M Abul Faiz, Peter W Gething, Tran T Hien, Tin M Hlaing, Mallika Imwong, Jean-Marie Kindermans, Richard J Maude, Mayfong Mayxay, Marina McDew-White, Didier Menard, Shalini Nair Show all



BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. METHODS: The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. RESULTS: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphi..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by National Institutes of Health (NIH)

Awarded by Research Facilities Improvement Program from the National Center for Research Resources of the NIH

Awarded by Medical Research Council

Awarded by MRC

Funding Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the UK Department for International Development, the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network, the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Mahidol-University Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme is funded by the Wellcome Trust of Great Britain. KMT was supported by a Li Ka Shing Foundation Scholarship. MI was supported by Mahidol University. EPMG was supported by the ExxonMobile Foundation. Work at Texas Biomedical Research Institute was supported by a National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant (No. R37AI048071) to TJCA and was done in facilities constructed with support from Research Facilities Improvement Program (Grants C06 RR013556 and RR017515) from the National Center for Research Resources of the NIH.