Implications of privatizing/deregulating alcohol retail sales: projections of alcohol consumption in Ontario.

Abstract

PURPOSE: To project the consequences of privatizing or deregulating current alcohol retail monopolies in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: The projection is based on a multiplicative model and applied to estimate per capita alcohol consumption for four hypothetical scenarios, including both partial and complete privatization for the Province of Ontario, Canada. Those scenarios are mainly focused on the two dimensions of changes affected by privatization: alcohol physical availability and economic availability (i.e., retail prices). Various assumptions involving availability and prices are largely based on the Canadian and international research literature on deregulation/privatization. RESULTS AND I..