Journal article

Which species distribution models are more (or less) likely to project broad-scale, climate-induced shifts in species ranges?

Linda J Beaumont, Erin Graham, Daisy Englert Duursma, Peter D Wilson, Abigail Cabrelli, John B Baumgartner, Willow Hallgren, Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, David A Nipperess, Dan L Warren, Shawn W Laffan, Jeremy VanDerWal



Species distribution models (SDMs) frequently project substantial declines in the spatial extent of climatically suitable habitat in response to scenarios of future climate change. Such projections are highly disconcerting. Yet, considerable variation can occur in the direction and magnitude of range changes projected by different SDM methods, even when predictive performance is similar. In this study, we assessed whether particular methods have a tendency to predict substantial loss or gain of suitable habitat. In particular, we asked, “are 14 SDM methods equally likely to predict extreme changes to the future extent of suitable habitat for 220 Australian mammal species?”. We defined five n..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by Australian Research Council Discovery Grant

Awarded by CONACYT

Funding Acknowledgements

LJB received funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Grant (DP0877979). MER received funding from the CONACYT (No. 251905). We thank Jane Elith and Wilfried Thuiller for their advice on this manuscript. We greatly appreciate the comments made by anonymous reviewers, which strengthened the previous version of this manuscript.