Journal article

Modeling of Antilatency Treatment in HIV: What Is the Optimal Duration of Antiretroviral Therapy-Free HIV Remission?

Deborah Cromer, Mykola Pinkevych, Thomas A Rasmussen, Sharon R Lewin, Stephen J Kent, Miles P Davenport

Journal of Virology | AMER SOC MICROBIOLOGY | Published : 2017

Abstract

A number of treatment strategies are currently being developed to promote antiretroviral therapy-free HIV cure or remission. While complete elimination of the HIV reservoir would prevent recurrence of infection, it is not clear how different remission lengths would affect viral rebound and transmission. In this work, we use a stochastic model to show that a treatment that achieves a 1-year average time to viral remission will still lead to nearly a quarter of subjects experiencing viral rebound within the first 3 months. Given quarterly viral testing intervals, this leads to an expected 39 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 to 69) heterosexual transmissions and up to 262 (95% UI, 107 to 534)..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)


Awarded by NHMRC


Awarded by National Institutes of Health Delaney AIDS Research Enterprise To Find a Cure


Awarded by NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES


Funding Acknowledgements

This work was funded by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Program grant (1052979 to M.P.D., S.J.K., and S.R.L. [http://www.nhmrc.gov.au/]) and NHMRC Fellowships to M.P.D. (1080001), S.J.K. (1041832), and S.R.L. (1042654) and by the Danish Council for Independent Research (OSS) (http://ufm.dk/en/). S.R.L. is funded by the National Institutes of Health Delaney AIDS Research Enterprise To Find a Cure (U19 AI126611). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.