Journal article
The spatial distribution of rainfall extremes and the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation
Kate Saunders, Alec G Stephenson, Peter G Taylor, David Karoly
Weather and Climate Extremes | Elsevier | Published : 2017
Abstract
Extreme rainfall does not occur in spatial isolation. Rainfall occurs in a region, and within that region nearby locations are likely to experience similar impacts due to spatial dependence. While univariate extreme value models provide the easiest statistical modelling approach to rainfall extremes, practitioners and researchers adopting statistical models without spatial dependence are liable to underestimate potential impacts. To minimise the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall, an understanding of the extreme precipitation field is required. To highlight how a spatial model with dependence compares with univariate models of extremes, a max-stable model is fitted to the daily annual maxim..
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Grants
Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)
Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Funding Acknowledgements
Kate Saunders and Peter Taylor would like to thank the Australian Research Council (ARC) for support through Laureate Fellowship FL130100039 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers. Kate Saunders would also like to acknowledge top up funding from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industry Research Organisation (CSIRO) and thank Anthony Davison for his helpful suggestions at the 13th International Meeting On Statistical Climatology on how to model the non- linearity of the response surface. David Karoly was supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant CE 110001028).