Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
James C Bennett, Quan J Wang, David E Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, Kelvin Michael
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2017
Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall-runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates h..View full abstract
This research has been supported by the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Land & Water. Thanks to Senlin Zhou, Julien Lerat, Paul Feikema and Daehyok Shin (all Bureau of Meteorology) for supplying data and for fruitful discussions on the development of FoGSS. Thanks to two anonymous reviewers for constructive and thorough reviews, and to Maria-Helena Ramos for editing the manuscript.