Journal article

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | IOP PUBLISHING LTD | Published : 2017

Abstract

In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57-130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73-150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75-147 cm) f..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship


Awarded by German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety


Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) which is hosting the SSP scenario database (https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/). We would also like to thank R DeConto for providing the calibration data used in this study. M Meinshausen receives the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship Grant FT130100809. M Mengel is supported by the AXA Research Fund. C-F Schleussner acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (16_II_148_Global_A_IMPACT). J Rogelj acknowledges support of the Oxford Martin School Visiting Fellowship Programme.