Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country.
George J Milne, Pravin Baskaran, Nilimesh Halder, Stephan Karl, Joel Kelso
BMJ Open | Published : 2013
OBJECTIVES: The possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic influenza strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. It is known that during past influenza pandemics developing countries have experienced considerably higher death rates compared with developed countries. Furthermore, many developing countries lack appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. Mathematical modelling studies to guide the development of such plans are largely focused on predicting pandemic influenza spread in developed nations. However, intervention strategies shown by modelling studies to be highly effective for developed countries give limited guidance as to the impact which an influenza pandemic may have on ..View full abstract