How geoengineering scenarios frame assumptions and create expectations

Abstract

Geoengineering could remake environments and societies, and early governance can help to steer the development of technologies towards sustainable outcomes. In the absence of observational data, geoengineering research and discussions are increasingly informed by scenarios, which provide heuristic tools for ‘envisioning’ potential futures. Although designed for specific research goals, scenarios can have broader implications by influencing expectations about the societal role that emerging geoengineering technologies can play. Yet the design of geoengineering scenarios has gone largely unscrutinized. This study is a meta-analysis in which we evaluate geoengineering scenarios from the literat..