White-box prediction of process performance indicators via flow analysis

Abstract

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit historical process execution logs to provide predictions about running instances of a process, which enable process workers and managers to preempt performance issues or compliance violations. A number of approaches have been proposed to predict quantitative process performance indicators, such as remaining cycle time, cost, or probability of deadline violation. However, these approaches adopt a black-box approach, insofar as they predict a single scalar value without decomposing this prediction into more elementary components. In this paper, we propose a white-box approach to predict performance indicators of running process instances. ..