Journal article

Measuring the baseline sales and the promotion effect for incense products: A Bayesian state-space modeling approach

T Ando

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics | Published : 2008


One of the most important research fields in marketing science is the analysis of time series data. This article develops a new method for modeling multivariate time series. The proposed method enables us to measure simultaneously the effectiveness of marketing activities, the baseline sales, and the effects of controllable/uncontrollable business factors. The critical issue in the model construction process is the method for evaluating the usefulness of the predictive models. This problem is investigated from a statistical point of view, and use of the Bayesian predictive information criterion is considered. The proposed method is applied to sales data regarding incense products. The method..

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