Journal article

Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis

Freya M Shearer, Joshua Longbottom, Annie J Browne, David M Pigott, Oliver J Brady, Moritz UG Kraemer, Fatima Marinho, Sergio Yactayo, Valdelaine EM de Araujo, Aglaer A da Nobrega, Nancy Fullman, Sarah E Ray, Jonathan F Mosser, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Stephen S Lim, Robert C Reiner, Catherine L Moyes, Simon I Hay, Nick Golding

LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH | ELSEVIER SCI LTD | Published : 2018

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. MET..

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