Journal article

Variance and Rate-of-Change as Early Warning Signals for a Critical Transition in an Aquatic Ecosystem State: A Test Case From Tasmania, Australia

Kristen K Beck, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Patricia S Gadd, Henk Heijnis, Krystyna M Saunders, Gavin L Simpson, Atun Zawadzki

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2018

University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by Australian Research Council

Awarded by Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering

Funding Acknowledgements

The financial support of this project comes from the Australian Research Council (award: DI110100019 and IN140100050) and Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering (award: ALNGRA12003P). Gavin L. Simpson was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada's Discovery Grant Program. We would like to thank Tasmania National Parks and Wildlife Service and the Tasmanian Aboriginal Community for their support and allowing us to work on their lands. We would also like to thank Michela Mariani, Anthony Romano, Coralie Tate, and Valentina Vanghi for their assistance in the field. We would like to acknowledge Brent Wolfe and his laboratory at University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada (adjunct with Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada) for their isotopic analysis and interpretation assistance. The data presented are listed in the tables, references, and supplements, as well as, publicly available on Neotoma ( upon date of publication. We also thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on a previous draft.