Error reduction and representation in stages (ERRIS) in hydrological modelling for ensemble streamflow forecasting

Abstract

Abstract. This study develops a new error modelling method for short-term and real-time streamflow forecasting, called error reduction and representat ion in stages (ERRIS). The novelty of ERRIS is that it does not rely on a single complex error model but runs a sequence of simple error models through four stages. At each stage, an error model attempts to incrementally improve over the previous stage. Stage 1 establishes parameters of a hydrological model and parameters of a transformation function for data normalization, Stage 2 applies a bias-correction, Stage 3 applies an autoregressive (AR) updating, and Stage 4 applies a Gaussian mixture distribution to represent model residuals. For a ..