Journal article

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

Matthias Mengel, Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2018

Abstract

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below ..

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Grants

Awarded by European Union's Horizon research and innovation programme


Awarded by German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety


Funding Acknowledgements

M.M. is supported by the AXA Research Fund Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme. J.R. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 642147 (CD-LINKS) and grant agreement No. 641816 (CRESCENDO) and acknowledges support by the Oxford Martin School Visiting Fellowship Programme. C.-F.S. acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (16_II_148_Global_A_IMPACT).