Clusters of Suicidal Events Among Young People: Do Clusters from One Time Period Predict Later Clusters?

Abstract

We sought to compare clusters of suicidal events between two different time periods and examine the extent to which earlier clusters predict later clusters. We included data on suicides and suicide attempts from New South Wales between July 2001 and June 2012 and Western Australia between January 2000 and December 2011. Suicide attempts included admissions to hospital for deliberate self-harm and suicides were deaths due to deliberate self-harm. We combined data on suicides and suicide attempts and grouped them into two equal time periods. We detected clusters in each period using Poisson discrete scan statistics adjusted for socio-economic status. We estimated the predictive values of earli..