Journal article
Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma
ECF Wilson, JA Usher-Smith, J Emery, PG Corrie, FM Walter
Value in Health | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC | Published : 2018
Abstract
Background: Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant “better quality” data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. Objectives: To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. Methods: A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the pr..
View full abstractGrants
Awarded by NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre
Funding Acknowledgements
This work is an unfunded extension to the MelaTools program, which provided participant honoraria. The MelaTools program was funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Award (RG 68235). E. Wilson was funded by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. J. Usher-Smith was funded by an NIHR Clinical Lectureship. J. Emery was funded by a National Health and Medical Research Council Practitioner Fellowship. Views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the Department of Health.