A STOCHASTIC-MODEL FOR ANTHRACNOSE DEVELOPMENT IN STYLOSANTHES-SCABRA

Abstract

Spatial and temporal progress of anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides in quantitatively resistant accessions of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra was studied in a field experiment at the Southedge Research Station, Queensland, Australia. An anthracnose epidemic was initiated by inoculating a group of susceptible seedlings planted at the center of each plot. The speed with which the disease spread from the infection focus to plants within a plot depended on their proximity to the focus and level of resistance of the accessions. A stochastic Markov chain model, in which the probability of a plant developing a given disease severity level depends on its current dis..