A Stochastic Model Incorporating the Effect of Weather Conditions on Anthracnose Development in Stylosanthes scabra

Abstract

Spatial and temporal progress of anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides in quantitatively resistant accessions of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra were studied in a field experiment at the Southedge Research Station, Queensland, Australia. In a previously published work a conditional ordinal logistic regression model was developed to explain the probability of a plant developing a given disease severity level, depending on its previous disease state and that of its neighbours. In the present study this model is augmented to incorporate the effects of three weather variables which were measured daily during a growing season. Two approaches were used: (a) threshold..