Estimating the influence of temperature on the survival of chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) migrating through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta of California

Abstract

A formal statistical model is presented for the release of smolts marked with coded-wire tags (CWTs) in the lower Sacramento River and the subsequent recovery of marked smolts in midwater trawls in the Delta. This model treats survival as a logistic function of water temperature, and the release and recovery of different CWT groups as independent mark-recapture experiments. Iteratively reweighted least squares is used to fit the model to the data, and simulation is used to establish confidence intervals for the fitted parameters. A 95% confidence interval for the upper incipient lethal temperature, inferred from the trawl data by this method, is 23.01 ± 1.08°C. This is in good agreement with..