Using expert elicitation to estimate the potential impact of improved diagnostic performance of laboratory tests: a case study on rapid discharge of suspected non–ST elevation myocardial infarction patients

Abstract

Early health technology assessment can provide insight in the potential cost-effectiveness of new tests to guide further development decisions. This can increase their potential benefit but often requires evidence which is lacking in early test development stages. Then, expert elicitation may be used to generate evidence on the impact of tests on patient management. This is illustrated in a case study on a new triple biomarker test (copeptin, heart-type fatty acid binding protein, and high-sensitivity troponin [HsTn]) at hospital admission. The elicited evidence enables estimation of the impact of using the triple biomarker on time to exclusion of non–ST elevation myocardial infarction compa..