Comparison of Timed Automata with Discrete Event Simulation for Modeling of Biomarker-Based Treatment Decisions: An Illustration for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Abstract

Background With the advent of personalized medicine, the field of health economic modeling is being challenged and the use of patient-level dynamic modeling techniques might be required. Objectives To illustrate the usability of two such techniques, timed automata (TA) and discrete event simulation (DES), for modeling personalized treatment decisions. Methods An early health technology assessment on the use of circulating tumor cells, compared with prostate-specific antigen and bone scintigraphy, to inform treatment decisions in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer was performed. Both modeling techniques were assessed quantitatively, in terms of intermediate outcomes (e.g., overtr..