Does size matter to models? Exploring the effect of herd size on outputs of a herd-level disease spread simulator

Abstract

Disease spread modeling is widely used by veterinary authorities to predict the impact of emergency animal disease outbreaks in livestock and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different management interventions. Such models require knowledge of basic disease epidemiology as well as information about the population of animals at risk. Essential demographic information includes the production system, animal numbers, and their spatial locations yet many countries with significant livestock industries do not have publically available and accurate animal population information at the farm level that can be used in these models. The impact of inaccuracies in data on model outputs and the decis..