Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract

Modern conservation requires robust predictions about how management will affect an ecosystem and its species. The large uncertainties about the type and strength of interactions make model predictions particularly unreliable. In this paper, we show how fuzzy cognitive maps can produce robust predictions in complex and uncertain ecosystems. The use of fuzzy cognitive maps has been increasing markedly, but there are two critical issues with the approach: translation of expert knowledge into the FCM is often done incorrectly; and sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted. Translating expert knowledge is a constant challenge for ecological modellers, often because experts know about the behavio..