Journal article

Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations

SS Dhomse, D Kinnison, MP Chipperfield, RJ Salawitch, I Cionni, MI Hegglin, NL Abraham, H Akiyoshi, AT Archibald, EM Bednarz, S Bekki, P Braesicke, N Butchart, M Dameris, M Deushi, S Frith, SC Hardiman, B Hassler, LW Horowitz, R Hu Show all

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Copernicus GmBH | Published : 2018

Abstract

We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20gDU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model re..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by NASA


Awarded by New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund


Awarded by ERC


Awarded by Swiss National Science Foundation


Awarded by Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan


Awarded by European Project StratoClim (7th Framework Programme)


Awarded by Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme


Awarded by European Commission's 7th Framework Programme


Awarded by European Union


Awarded by Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science


Awarded by Australian Government's National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme


Awarded by Australian Antarctic science grant program


Awarded by Deep South National Science Challenge


Awarded by NERC SISLAC project


Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the modelling groups for making their simulations available for this analysis, the joint WCRP IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) for organizing and coordinating the model data analysis activity, and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) for collecting and archiving the CCMI model output. We thank Michelle Santee for providing the MLS data. The SBUV Merged Ozone Data Set is made available under the NASA long-term measurement of ozone program WBS 479717. Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Ewa M. Bednarz, and John A. Pyle acknowledge the UK Met Office for use of the MetUM. NIWA research was supported by the NZ Government's Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF) through the NIWA programme CACV. Olaf Morgenstern acknowledges funding by the New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund (grant 12-NIW-006) and by the Deep South National Science Challenge (www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz, last acess: 1 June 2018). We acknowledge the contribution of NeSI high-performance computing facilities to the results of this research. New Zealand's national facilities are provided by the New Zealand eScience Infrastructure (NeSI) and funded jointly by NeSI's collaborator institutions and through the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment's Research Infrastructure programme (www.nesi.org.nz, last access: 1 June 2018). N. Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, and John A. Pyle acknowledge use of the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service (www.archer.ac.uk, last acess: 1 June 2018) and the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and NERC. Ewa M. Bednarz acknowledges funding from the ERC for the ACCI project (grant number 267760). The SOCOL team acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant agreement CRSII2_147659 (FUPSOL II). Eugene Rozanov acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant 200021_169241 (VEC). Hideharu Akiyoshi acknowledges Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (2-1303 and 2-1709), and NEC-SX9/A(ECO) computers at CGER, NIES. The IPSL team acknowledges support from the Centre d'Etude Spatiale (CNES) SOLSPEC grant, European Project StratoClim (7th Framework Programme, grant agreement 603557), and the LABEX L-IPSL, funded by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche under the "Programme d'Investissements d'Avenir". Neal Butchart, Steven C. Hardiman, and Fiona M. O'Connor were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Neal Butchart and Steven C. Hardiman also acknowledge the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme, under grant agreement no. 603557, StratoClim project. Fiona M. O'Connor acknowledges additional support from the Horizon 2020 European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO) project under grant agreement no. 641816. The EMAC simulations have been performed at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) through support from the Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF). DKRZ and its scientific steering committee are gratefully acknowledged for providing the HPC and data archiving resources for this consortial project ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling).CESM1 (WACCM) and CESM1 (CAM4) are components of NCAR's CESM, which is supported by the NSF and the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by NCAR's Climate Simulation Laboratory, sponsored by NSF and other agencies. This research was enabled by the computational and storage resources of NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL). Robyn Schofield and Kane Stone acknowledge support from Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028), the Australian Government's National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme (q90), and Australian Antarctic science grant program (FoRCES 4012). Stefanie Kremser acknowledges funding by the Deep South National Science Challenge (CO1X1445). Ross J. Salawitch appreciates the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ACMAP and Aura programs. Martyn P. Chipperfield and Sandip Dhomse acknowledge use of the Archer and Leeds HPC facilities and funding from the NERC SISLAC project (NE/R001782/1). Martyn P. Chipperfield thanks the Royal Society for a Wolfson Merit Award.