Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management
Victoria Hemming, Terry Walshe, Anca M Hanea, Fiona Fidler, Mark A Burgman
PLOS ONE | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2018
INTRODUCTION: Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the dearth of illustrative examples that demonstrate how they can be applied within pressing time and resource constraints, while also improving judgements. AIMS AND METHODS: In this paper, we demonstrate how the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation may be deployed to overcome operational challenges while improving the quality o..View full abstract
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VH and AH are funded or receive support from the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis at the University of Melbourne, Melbourne Australia. TW, AH, and MB are funded or receive support from the Centre of Environmental and Economic Research at the University of Melbourne, Melbourne Australia. VH also receives funding from the Australian Government Strategic Research Australian Postgraduate Award. MB is primarily funded by the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College, London, United Kingdom. FF is funded by the School of Historical and Philosophical Studies at the University of Melbourne, Melbourne Australia and the School of Biosciences at the University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia. The open access publication of this manuscript was funded by the Centre of Excellence of Biosecurity Risk Analysis of the University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.We sincerely thank each of the participants who took part in the study, your participation and feedback have helped us to understand and improve methods for eliciting expert judgement in natural resource management. We have omitted participant names and demographic details to avoid identification of participants against performance criteria. We thank the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis for funding this publication to be open-access. We also thank the agencies who assisted us with question development and provided data to score judgements, in particular, The Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, The Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection, The Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, The Queensland Department of Natural Resource Management, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. We thank Dr Marissa McBride for her suggestions during the preparation of this manuscript. We also thank the handling editors, Iratxe Puebla and Julia Stevenson, as well as Tara Martin and three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions on the first draft of this manuscript.